What I was surprised about before were the number of people who make over $100K in the Seattle area, we must have a lot of those people here, and we do: http://www.seattle.gov/economicdevelopment/pdf_files/CAI%20OED%20Indicators%20Dashboard%202011%20081511%20FINAL.pdf

As far as Schilling we all know a year doesn’t make a housing market, but Shiller was widely quoted http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-04-24/news/sns-rt-us-usa-housing-reboundbre83n0sk-20120424_1_housing-rebound-high-gas-prices-robert-shiller

“The Housing market is likely to remain weak and may take a generation or more to rebound, Yale economics professor Robert Shiller told Reuters Insider on Tuesday.” That was April 24th 2012.

What Shiller said in the interview you linked is we are down to normal levels without defining normal at all. The rest of his interview was pretty dismal. He also says we may well be in for a five to ten year decline in home prices.

It’s always easy to grab some statistic and try to make something out of it, but the facts are clear. We have weak employment, uncertainty in Europe, China is a disaster, over all weakness in energy, commodities, and stocks. We never got that inflation from massive government infusion, globally, so it looks like we will need some real economic expansion, in a time when we are winding down a couple of wars.

We’re stuck with some sticky economic troubles, that don’t look like they will be resolved, any time soon.

So, I don’t see taking on massive amounts of debt on expensive assets, like the family home, at cheap mortgage rates as a good thing to do for the family.

If you are making $70K, your mortgage should be $1944 which puts you at about $275K to $300K with a mortgage payment alone of about $1500.

What can a family buy for $275K to $300K? In reality you should be much lower than that because you will want to pay it off , because that is the only way to create equity.

So you can see that the Real Estate market place is kind of dominated by the over $100K crowd. How much inventory do we need for them when the rest of us are, “priced out forever?”

It’s simple math that the price for housing will need to correct, lower, for our Seattle area, and probably most urban centers. You want people to have, and own housing, for all the reasons that have been widely quoted for years.

It sits up off the street with South West exposure. The listing agent makes a lot about the view, but the value is in the structure. When you jump on the second floor it feels like concrete. The foundation may have been added later because it is thick and has structure that for 1940 construction would have been ahead of it’s time. The aluminum siding I would bet is covering the original siding that must be in pretty good shape, because that siding would only have been exposed for about 20 years.

Yes the kitchen, and bath could be remodeled, or they could be refurbished. The bath room looks to be in good shape. I would add a bath to the second floor. I’m sure the structure can handle it.

For $450K this seems like a great place to hold onto. It might even take an offer. It is an estate sale. To me though I can see it selling again for more than this asking price. It may just need a little more love.

I watched him one day with an enthusiastic young couple in our conference room. You can tell when Jack is thinking, he turns his head a little to the right while he speaks. Then I heard the fatal words that Jack uses when he disagrees, “Well, you know.” He starts the sentence that way to kind of cushion the blow.

The young couple was very excited about a house at a time when prices were going up quick. It was one of those times of multiple offers. A lot of agents were writing up deals without a thought or concern. Jack was in there cooling their jets with a “Well, you know,” kind of damper on the situation.

The couple got the house, Jack just let them calm down long enough to make a lower offer, presented last.

When you meet Jack you know you are talking with some one you can trust. Jack knows what he’s talking about. You don’t need to look at the paper work, you know it is correct, and in the best interest of every one. It’s a good, solid, deal, because Jack wouldn’t put his name on anything else.

In the 1980s I bought Rumblefish Espresso, and Pasta Bella, the restaurant. The machine we had was a La Marzocco, which I still think is excellent. The problem is that most people think “pulling a shot” is something the machine does, it has buttons, after all.

My love of coffee takes me to a lot of places. Here in Seattle I was referred to Victrola Coffee by more than one source. They use a Synesso machine that is also made in Seattle, as is La Marzocco. Out of four times that I have been paying attention, the shots have been perfect.

Today I asked what the difference was, and Tim, a barrista, or the barrista who seems to always be there, started in with they roast their own beans. Sorry, but even the best machine can butcher great beans. So he continued with it’s part the machine, part beans, and part a learning process. Some people spend their entire lives being great espresso barristas. That’s just a fact.

 http://www.victrolacoffee.com/

I was at the library last week to get a book about business by Napoleon Hill. I wanted the book for a video presentation, it was a part of the staging. The library didn’t have a copy, or any copies of his books. You could however download the books through some system the library has.

Well I wanted the book that day so I went a used book store that also didn’t have any copies, which took me to Twice Sold Tales here in Seattle. They also didn’t have a copy. During our search in the store the clerk told me they were closing one of the two last remaining locations. The person behind the counter matter of factly said “people don’t buy books any more.”

I understand. Barnes and Noble is restructuring, other book stores are struggling, online sales is one reason, and electronic books is another. What is sad in the passing of the book store business model is the sense of community.

I spend a lot of time on line. There are people I have never met who correspond with me daily. Between the Face Book, and Twitter, along with all the other network sites, there is a pretty broad base of people who come together every day to share thoughts, or strategies.

In my opinion the book store was going to be a survivor. It does make sense that the small cloister of people who made up the literary scene of Seattle could get smaller and share more online. My thought though was that in trading books you would want to see them. Evidently the collecting of books got to be an even smaller group.

One book seller went from store front, to online, to liquidating her entire stock in one transaction with a book broker. The demand just isn’t as great.

I’m just noting the passage. I have no real opinion of it because like I said I spend a lot of time online.

The store of Twice Sold Tales had been a staple in my life for thirty years. The rows of books along with the cats, there have always been cats in the store, was a refuge. I spent many afternoons looking for books that I wanted, or needed. Today I just Google the information.

It is a loss, and as much as I would say we should save the tradition, I know there is more to do in my day.

http://www.twice-sold-tales.biz/

What we have seen is that more properties are preparing to come onto the market. Essentially people are spending more so they can sell for less. Your property needs to be in top condition for buyers, qualified buyers, to look at it seriously. You also need a qualified Real Estate agent to move you through the process.

I have been surprised by some of the agents who are doing well in today’s market place. Actually it is more surprising that some of the agents that I truly respect and admire are kind of floundering. Experience really is going a long way in getting a property sold today. Experienced agents are bringing more to the table.

If you are a buyer you have some very difficult choices to make. The easiest choice is to wait. We’ll see if the government will interfere in the Real Estate market place again, but I sincerely doubt they will. In my opinion it will be next November before we see stability in the Real Estate market place.

Goldman Sachs published an opinion about Real Estate pricing last month that was hotly debated. It projected another 22% decline in Real Estate prices in Seattle. The first leg down will be before the end of the year. We should see that by November.

We already have seen the drops in condo pricing. It seems a $100K drop is the most common in the $300K to $650K prices. For me the $500 a square foot is kind of hard to imagine, but it is what it is. Down Town condos, for me seem like an excellent position to be in, at the right price.

My point about condos is that residential Real Estate won’t be far behind. This year we will see prices dropping more steadily as the sales data becomes more in line with value. The real trick will be to qualify for a loan, but that will be a post for another time. The theme today is the waiting.

The first consideration is usually schools. I know for my family we have moved to be closer to a high school I always thought was great. There can be a long discussion about schools, but I want to get to a point where you also consider the friends your child will make.

This is where Real Estate agents have a discussion about location. The amenities to a neighborhood are great. That’s one of the things I write about here. The schools kind of go hand in hand with what a neighborhood can offer. In Seattle there are a few neighborhoods in proximity to the University of Washington that are highly prized. Bryant, Mount Lake, View Ridge, and Laurelhurst are close to the University and are up scale. Surrounding Saint Joseph’s church on Capitol Hill is prized.

Going down into Madison, and Washington Park, you’ll find families that are generational. Everybody knows everybody, and the grand parents also. Queen Anne Hill, and Magnolia could also be the same kind of long term family owned property areas, but they are more transitional. In my opinion they are further removed from the University of Washington goal for the kids to attend, and make relationships for. Literally, in Seattle, you will find people who grew up, went to school, went to the University of Washington, and found jobs all within a 10 mile radius. I’m sure it’s the same in any city in the world.

This little Industrial area was besieged by the Fred Meyer store that was allowed to be developed. It’s right off of Leary Way, in the same area as Mike’s Chili. If you wanted a day trip some place, and you can over look the new development, there are some interesting places that I’m sure will be displaced soon enough.

On Sundays, after church, people would walk around the top of Queen Anne, see the neighbors and take in the views of the city. To own a home along the Promenade was a coveted location. You can see some of the finest homes, with great attention to detail along with some more modest craftsman homes.

The most popular part of the Promenade is down 8th Avenue West to Highland Drive. This takes in the views of the City and the Grand Wall with lighted fish bowls on the South West side of the Hill. The walk is much longer and goes around the top of Queen Ann Hill. It is mostly flat with a few inclines and declines.

To follow the path completely you would continue East across Queen Ann Avenue, the counter balance and deviate a little to the right from 1st Avenue North to Prospect which will continue East before it gently turns into Bigelow. This is the longest part of the walk that is uninterrupted by turns. It goes North and South along the East side of the Hill.

The North side of the walk is the most confusing. From Bigelow you go left to West Wheeler which winds a bit up to Nob Hill West and you walk across the bridge. Now McGraw is a reoccurring street name and you will be following McGraw Pl to Smith Street and cross Queen Ann Avenue. Here another McGraw Place curves into McGraw Avenue to cross 3rd Avenue. The street gently curving to the right is again McGraw Place.

This next section is taking you past the cemetery which was a customary part of paying respects on a Sunday. So you are headed down 5th Ave to West Raye, right on 8th which takes you to West Fulton and finally a left to 10th Avenue West.

It gets a little complicated here because you are going to loop back into West Wheeler, over to 8th Avenue West and back up to McGraw Avenue, take a left and immediate right onto 7th Avenue West. This is where there is a little shopping area with Macrina Bakery and Rhinestone Rosie’s a block over, but you are headed down 7th.

As you head South on 7th Avenue West you will see the tree lined street give way on the right to the light poles with fish bowls on top. At the end of that wall you see West Blaine turning to the right and then a left on 8th Avenue West completes the loop down to West Highland Drive. 

Of course now, with cars, you still see people walking, but not the fancy clothes of an afternoon stroll. Baby strollers and sweats are more normal. Still if you have the time, or you want some place other than Green Lake, you could spend a few hours in the afternoon walking around the Promenade that encircles the top of Queen Ann Hill.

There was a time when you got a hair cut, or a shoe shine on your lunch break. Now people make a special trip some place, to a salon, for a hair style. I know we don’t call it that any more, but really that’s what we are doing. I’ve been to all of them. The high end, put on a robe spas, to the Gene Jaurez, which is where I met Odette. She was taking training at the Gene Juarez at North Gate Shopping Mall, it’s near my house.

It was a trial and error, but we had so much fun. When she told me she was going to her brother’s Salon down town it took me a while to drag myself down there. It was one of the best things ever.

Samir is a classic hair stylist that your mother would love. Every body loves Samir. He for sure could have had a larger career in a bigger salon setting. instead you walk into an unassuming, meticulously kept, salon with three chairs. It’s a warm feeling that is friendly and professional. People wander in and out, kind of like they are hoping for an opening. It’s a hotel so some people are guests, some employees, and some people who work in the neighborhood. They are kitty korner from the library.

It’s a family place, that is reasonably priced, and the work is excellent. It’s an experience well worth remembering.